The global landscape of the Vape trade is undergoing subtle but significant changes.
In September 2025, China’s total Vape exports reached US$879 million, down 6.08% month-on-month but up 3.41% year-on-year.
The United States remained the largest destination, importing US$383 million worth of Chinese Vapes — about 43.6% of the total — and maintaining its dominant position as China’s top export market.
According to a Bloomberg analysis of customs data, while nearly all of China’s top ten export categories to the U.S. declined last quarter, Vape exports bucked the trend and continued to rise.
The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, now entering its fourth week, has resulted in temporary regulatory relaxation, creating a short-lived “window of opportunity” for Chinese Vape exporters. Yet, this window may close as swiftly as it opened.
01. Market Dependence: The U.S. Still Dominates
China’s Vape industry remains heavily reliant on the U.S. market — far more than most realize.
Despite tariffs and trade barriers, American demand for vaping products remains robust, sustaining a multi-billion-dollar industry that few exporters can afford to ignore.
Together, China’s top five export destinations — the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, and Malaysia — account for 64.78% of total export value, showing a high degree of concentration.
This structure underscores the U.S.’s central role as the world’s largest vaping market but also exposes the lack of diversification in China’s export strategy.
02. The Shutdown Effect: A Temporary Regulatory Loophole
The U.S. government shutdown has inadvertently created short-term benefits for Chinese exporters.
With 500,000 federal employees furloughed or unpaid, regulatory oversight has weakened across multiple agencies.
The FDA (Food and Drug Administration) has acknowledged operational disruptions:
“While we can continue reviewing previously submitted applications, we are unable to receive or initiate new fee-based applications during the shutdown.”
This effectively means temporary easing of product supervision.
The timing is notable — the shutdown overlaps with the peak export season for Vapes, potentially pushing October 2025 exports to record highs.
Even agencies like the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) have scaled back enforcement efforts, offering short-term logistical advantages for distributors relying on postal-based shipments.
03. Storm Ahead: FDA Tightens Oversight
The shutdown’s “regulatory gap” is only a temporary reprieve.
The FDA has submitted its 2026 enforcement budget to Congress, proposing US$200 million in funding — most of which will be used to strengthen border inspections and establish dedicated enforcement teams for routine monitoring.
At the same time, PMTA (Premarket Tobacco Product Application) requirements are becoming increasingly stringent.
Recent data show that within just four months, the FDA issued 28,000 acceptance letters but rejected over 180,000 applications, yielding a pass rate of only about 10%.
Individual states are tightening their own laws as well. Since September 1, 2025, states such as Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and California have introduced stricter rules on packaging, ingredients, origin labeling, and advertising for vaping products.
Moreover, U.S. Customs now requires importers to provide a Submission Tracking Number (STN) for all Vape imports — proof that the product has been filed with the FDA under PMTA.
However, STN alone is no longer sufficient. Obtaining an official PMTA acceptance letter has become the true entry ticket to the U.S. market.
04. Supply Chain Restructuring: Localization and Diversification
The U.S. vaping supply chain is undergoing deep transformation.
While China remains indispensable in hardware manufacturing, American companies are expanding their presence in e-liquid production, filling, packaging, and alternative nicotine solutions.
Local manufacturing mandates are accelerating this trend.
For instance, Alabama’s HB8 Bill, effective October 1, 2025, requires that any new vaping product sold within the state must be manufactured, packaged, and labeled in the U.S., unless it has already received FDA PMTA authorization.
As regulations tighten, industry consolidation is expected to intensify.
Analysts from Tianfeng Securities predict a surge in supply chain concentration as only compliant, well-capitalized players survive.
Global technology leaders like SMOORE International, which provide integrated atomization solutions, are increasingly standing out amid this transition.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are actively exploring emerging markets to offset U.S. dependence.
By July 2025, the UAE had risen to become China’s sixth-largest export market, while Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan entered the top twenty — signaling the rapid rise of the Middle Eastern vaping market.
05. Compliance as the Deciding Factor: The Road Ahead
The U.S. vaping market is entering what can be called a “compliance-driven era.”
So far, 12 states have enacted PMTA registration laws, and over 20 more are advancing similar legislation.
Most require that products submit and obtain PMTA acceptance before being listed for sale within their jurisdiction.
The FDA has also begun expanding oversight of modern oral nicotine products. In September 2025, it launched a pilot program to streamline the PMTA process for selected nicotine pouch products — signaling a search for balance between regulatory efficiency and enforcement rigor.
For Chinese vaping companies, success in the U.S. will require a dual strategy:
- Pursue full PMTA compliance, securing acceptance letters to ensure regulatory legitimacy.
- Optimize global production capacity, establishing manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia and other regions to mitigate tariff risks.
Simultaneously, businesses must accelerate market diversification, tapping into growth opportunities in the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America to reduce overreliance on the U.S. market.
06. The Industry’s Midlife Test Has Just Begun
From “wild growth” to “regulated survival”, China’s vaping industry has traveled a long road over the past decade.
The temporary boom from the U.S. government shutdown acts as a mirror, reflecting both the resilience and fragility of the industry.
China still possesses the world’s strongest manufacturing foundation — but compliance is the new battleground.
Once the FDA’s US$200 million enforcement program takes effect and U.S. supply chains become increasingly localized, the real challenge for Chinese Vape makers will no longer be capturing a month of export gains, but rather succeeding in the next five years.
The key question is whether the industry can evolve from “the world’s factory” to a global leader in compliance and innovation.
In the end, sustainable prosperity in any industry is built not on luck — but on strength, credibility, and long-term vision.